Quick glance
- Weekly crop progress shows lower than expected planting numbers
- Excessive rains impacting wheat development, soybean and corn planting
- Corn affected the most by rains and delayed planting with potential losses of up to 10 million acres
Crop Progress
- Most analysts were looking for very poor planting numbers with most around 60-63% in corn and 28-31% in beans. The most recent crop progress report shows us below most expectations:
- Corn is 58% planted, 49% last week and 90% five-year average
- Soybeans are 29% planted, 19% last week and 66% five-year average
- Spring wheat is 84% planted, 70% last week and 91% five-year average
Weather
- We are in a weather market with heavy rains across the corn belt over the weekend pushing grain markets higher. Above average rainfall will continue to plague planting progress across most of the Midwest in the next 10 days, according to forecasts.
- Increased rains have and will continue to increase crop risk. The wetness could damage wheat quality during critical growth stages for the crop, strengthening wheat prices.
- For soybeans and corn, the wet conditions across the Midwest will continue to keep planters off the fields. There are major implications for delayed planting in corn and soybeans, especially corn.
Corn
- With final corn prevent plant dates either past or around the corner in the Midwest and planting progress drastically behind the five-year average, some traders believe the U.S. will see 3-10 million acres of corn get prevented planting and not planted at all or see a shift to soybeans. Regardless of which way farmers sway, the number of acres being affected will shift the corn balance sheet dramatically.
Logistics
- The relentless storms and rains continue to disrupt freight movement. Flooding has washed out many rails across the Plains and Midwest, cutting off service to some areas. Barges are also facing logistic difficulties with river flooding and even leaving parts of the Mississippi River closed for business.
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